2004-11-08 - 9:18 a.m.

Fuzzy Probability

The two smallest rocks I have ever seen were probably on a beach.

This is the thing about me. I don�t know that information is true. But I assume it. This is what I do. I connect the dots, even if the dots are not able to truly be connected.

Because 1) Sand is small rocks and 2) The amount of sand I have seen percentage-wise has probably been on beach.

Psychics often time employ such methods to gain insightful perceptions into the lives of their paying customers. The more they know you and information about you, the easier it becomes.

There was this system/scam that went like this. A agent would call up 100 people, and give them a pick in a sports game. 50 people one tip, and 50 people the other (Hence 50% say the Eagles win, 50% say the Steelers win).

The following week 50 people say �You are an idiot, never call again� and 50 more say �Wow how did you know. Do it again.

Then 25 people you pick the Rams and the other 25 you pick the Seahawks. Again 25 people drop, and 25 remain. Break it 13 and 12 again.

At a certain point (usually 3-4 times in row correct) they believe you and will begin paying you for your information, which is just a scam, because you were playing even odds on either side, and they were unfortunate to be in the system where you were always correct.

Lucky for most bookies, betting is usually 50/50 thanks to the stat genius in Vegas.

It all comes down to perceived probability.

The same can happen in life. Hence, if asked about a girl and what she does, I process the following information.

Unknown: Girls occupation.
Known: Age (22), Status (Recently moved to Boston from Wisconsin), Hearsay (Wants to work with animals), and etc (has talked about how smart she is)

The proper answer to the question: What does the girl do, is �I do not know.�
However, in conversation the answer �I do not know� is far from interesting. It ends a conversation almost instantly. I have tried to avoid answering things this way. Instead, I compile information, and come to a conclusion that is sometimes correct, but is usually 80% accurate.

A 22 year old girl who thinks she is smart who has moved to Boston, and wants to work with animals is a Vet student.

1) Wanting to work with animals implies does not currently work with.
2) Moving to Boston from a place where she was happy usually implies that she is coming here for education because it is our biggest attraction
3) Proper age to enter grad school recently
4) Smart people go to grad school

That being said I determined that she was a Veterinarian student, because that is the most likely reason to move so far at this time in her life.

As with most things, this was a good, but not exact guess at the truth.

The truth: She has moved to Boston to take a job working with animals, so that she has the experience to become a Vet Student.

The confusing part to me, is why she would say that she wanted to work with animals when she currently works with animals. Nevertheless, data is rarely perfect and I am 100% satisfied that she is a Vet student.

And will remain so evermore.

Incidentally, don�t mess with woodland creatures.

before - After

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